Model Accuracy

Every prediction is frozen at tipoff and graded against the final score. No retroactive edits — this is the model's real record.

Games graded

5,206

Straight-up winners

70.5%

Margin error (MAE)

9.4 pts

Brier score

0.188

Pro

Calibration curve and month-by-month record — see exactly where the model earns its numbers.