IQ

Bracketology

The field the numbers would pick today — a seed model trained on our own 20 seasons of committee decisions (efficiency, record, schedule), auto bids to conference tournament champions. 2025-26

Committee check: 50 of the 51 known field members were in our projected 68 · seed deltas shown next to each team

Projected seed list

1
Michigan ✓ Arizona AQ ✓ Duke AQ ✓ UConn ▼2
2
Purdue AQ ✓ Illinois ▼3 Michigan State ▼3 Houston ✓
3
Alabama ▼4 Florida ▲1 Arkansas AQ ▼4 St. John's AQ ▼5
4
5
Virginia ▲3 Wisconsin ✓ Kansas ▲4 Texas Tech ✓
6
Gonzaga AQ ▲3 North Carolina ✓ Iowa ▼9 Kentucky ▼7
7
Utah State AQ ▼9 Saint Mary's ✓ BYU ▲6 Louisville ▲6
8
UCLA ▲7 Villanova ✗ Ohio State ✓ Miami ▲7
9
Clemson ✗ Georgia ✗ Texas ▼11 VCU AQ ▼11
10
Texas A&M ✓ Santa Clara ✗ Auburn ✗ TCU ▲9
11
Saint Louis ▲9 UCF L4I ✗ Missouri L4I ▲10 Tulsa L4I ✗
12
San Diego State L4I ✗ South Florida AQ ▲11 High Point AQ ✓ Akron AQ ✗
13
McNeese AQ ▲12 Northern Iowa AQ ✗ Hawai'i AQ ✓ North Dakota State AQ ▼14
14
California Baptist AQ ▲13 Hofstra AQ ✗ Kennesaw State AQ ✗ Pennsylvania AQ ✗
15
Furman AQ ✓ Troy AQ ▲13 Wright State AQ ✗ Siena AQ ▼16
16
Tennessee State AQ ✗ Idaho AQ ✗ UMBC AQ ✓ Queens University AQ ✗ Long Island University AQ ✗ Howard AQ ✓ Lehigh AQ ✓ Prairie View A&M AQ ✓

Last 4 in

UCF out #72 · 21-11
Missouri in #63 · 18-13
Tulsa out #59 · 28-8
San Diego State out #49 · 21-11

First 4 out

NC State in #50 · 20-14
Indiana out #67 · 17-14
Seton Hall out #65 · 21-12
Miami (OH) out #64 · 28-1

Next 4 out

Belmont out #44 · 25-5
SMU out #55 · 20-14
New Mexico out #37 · 25-11
Virginia Tech out #76 · 19-12

Seed score = learned blend of adjusted efficiency, winning percentage, and schedule strength — the committee weighs wins more than the ratings do, and the model learns exactly how much. AQ = automatic qualifier (conference tournament champion, or the league leader until one exists).