Projected Standings

Full-season Monte Carlo projections (2,000 simulations) — records and title odds.

National title contenders

#1 27.2%

Duke

F4 53% · Atlantic Coast Conference

#2 20.2%

Michigan

F4 47% · Big Ten Conference

#3 11.6%

Arizona

F4 35% · Big 12 Conference

#4 8.5%

Florida

F4 29% · Southeastern Conference

#5 5.5%

Illinois

F4 24% · Big Ten Conference

#6 5.0%

Houston

F4 21% · Big 12 Conference

#7 4.2%

UConn

F4 18% · Big East Conference

#8 3.0%

Gonzaga

F4 15% · West Coast Conference

Projected standings are a Pro feature

Full conference races, projected records and title odds for all 364 teams.

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Southeastern Conference

16 teams

Team	IQ	Proj	Conf	Title
4 Florida	905	26-8	17-3	47%
12 Alabama	835	24-10	13-6	11%
14 Tennessee	833	24-12	12-8	10%
15 Vanderbilt	815	26-9	13-8	8%

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Big Ten Conference

18 teams

Team	IQ	Proj	Conf	Title
2 Michigan	931	36-3	20-2	51%
5 Illinois	893	26-8	14-6	18%
10 Purdue	854	28-9	17-7	8%
11 Michigan State	854	26-8	14-6	8%

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Big 12 Conference

16 teams

Team	IQ	Proj	Conf	Title
3 Arizona	915	35-3	19-2	45%
6 Houston	891	29-7	16-5	25%
8 Iowa State	872	27-8	14-7	16%
21 Texas Tech	782	22-11	12-7	3%

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Atlantic Coast Conference

18 teams

Team	IQ	Proj	Conf	Title
1 Duke	936	34-3	20-1	82%
20 Louisville	794	24-11	12-8	4%
22 Virginia	781	28-6	17-4	3%
23 North Carolina	779	24-9	12-7	3%

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Big East Conference

11 teams

Team	IQ	Proj	Conf	Title
7 UConn	877	33-6	19-4	59%
13 St. John's	834	29-7	21-2	26%
39 Villanova	733	24-8	15-6	6%
65 Seton Hall	668	21-12	11-11	2%

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Mountain West Conference

12 teams

Team	IQ	Proj	Conf	Title
25 Utah State	776	27-7	18-5	32%
37 New Mexico	740	25-11	14-8	20%
49 San Diego State	701	21-11	16-7	12%
56 Boise State	683	19-11	12-9	9%

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Atlantic 10 Conference

14 teams

Team	IQ	Proj	Conf	Title
29 VCU	761	27-8	18-3	34%
41 Saint Louis	727	26-6	15-4	22%
52 Dayton	688	24-12	14-7	13%
79 George Mason	621	22-10	11-8	6%

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West Coast Conference

12 teams

Team	IQ	Proj	Conf	Title
9 Gonzaga	868	29-4	17-2	66%
17 Saint Mary's	805	26-5	16-3	21%
35 Santa Clara	748	25-7	17-3	9%
101 San Francisco	586	16-14	9-10	1%

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Missouri Valley Conference

11 teams

Team	IQ	Proj	Conf	Title
44 Belmont	721	25-5	16-4	34%
48 Northern Iowa	701	21-12	14-9	26%
74 Illinois State	639	21-12	12-9	12%
115 Bradley	571	20-13	14-8	6%

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American Athletic Conference

13 teams

Team	IQ	Proj	Conf	Title
33 South Florida	752	23-8	16-3	42%
59 Tulsa	680	28-8	14-6	16%
61 Wichita State	679	22-11	14-6	16%
87 UAB	608	19-11	11-7	7%

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Ivy League

8 teams

Team	IQ	Proj	Conf	Title
54 Yale	684	22-7	12-4	54%
113 Cornell	571	13-13	8-7	15%
144 Harvard	539	16-12	10-5	10%
155 Pennsylvania	525	16-11	11-5	9%

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Conference USA

12 teams

Team	IQ	Proj	Conf	Title
77 Liberty	625	23-8	17-4	27%
117 Kennesaw State	567	18-11	13-8	14%
122 Sam Houston	560	18-12	13-8	13%
143 Western Kentucky	540	16-11	11-7	10%

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Coastal Athletic Association

13 teams

Team	IQ	Proj	Conf	Title
71 Hofstra	644	20-10	14-6	30%
81 UNC Wilmington	619	24-7	15-4	23%
148 Towson	535	17-15	11-10	9%
153 William & Mary	527	18-12	11-9	8%

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Big West Conference

11 teams

Team	IQ	Proj	Conf	Title
73 UC San Diego	639	19-9	11-7	32%
88 UC Irvine	604	16-12	11-6	22%
126 Hawai'i	558	20-8	14-5	13%
146 UC Santa Barbara	537	14-11	10-7	10%

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Mid-American Conference

13 teams

Team	IQ	Proj	Conf	Title
45 Akron	721	25-5	18-1	46%
64 Miami (OH)	669	28-1	17-1	24%
100 Toledo	586	17-14	13-7	9%
141 Kent State	544	22-10	15-5	6%

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Western Athletic Conference

7 teams

Team	IQ	Proj	Conf	Title
84 Utah Valley	611	18-9	11-5	44%
102 California Baptist	582	22-8	12-4	32%
205 UT Arlington	461	13-13	8-9	8%
235 Utah Tech	430	15-13	11-6	6%

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Big Sky Conference

10 teams

Team	IQ	Proj	Conf	Title
140 Idaho	545	17-11	12-6	21%
147 Northern Colorado	537	15-12	8-9	19%
150 Montana State	533	12-13	9-6	19%
184 Portland State	493	15-11	12-6	12%

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Sun Belt Conference

14 teams

Team	IQ	Proj	Conf	Title
105 Troy	576	20-12	14-6	20%
110 Arkansas State	573	16-11	10-7	20%
158 South Alabama	520	19-11	11-7	11%
162 App State	517	16-13	10-8	11%

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Big South Conference

9 teams

Team	IQ	Proj	Conf	Title
43 High Point	723	27-5	17-1	75%
127 Winthrop	557	19-11	14-4	11%
222 Radford	443	13-16	9-8	3%
223 UNC Asheville	443	11-17	8-9	3%

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Horizon League

11 teams

Team	IQ	Proj	Conf	Title
112 Robert Morris	571	19-11	14-8	26%
129 Wright State	557	21-10	18-5	22%
167 Northern Kentucky	508	17-14	12-11	13%
168 Oakland	507	15-16	12-9	13%

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Southland Conference

12 teams

Team	IQ	Proj	Conf	Title
46 McNeese	711	26-6	21-3	60%
89 Stephen F. Austin	604	26-6	21-3	16%
128 UT Rio Grande Valley	557	17-13	15-9	10%
177 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi	499	14-14	14-10	5%

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Southern Conference

10 teams

Team	IQ	Proj	Conf	Title
108 East Tennessee State	574	21-11	15-6	26%
137 Furman	548	18-12	12-8	20%
161 Samford	518	15-14	10-8	14%
163 Mercer	513	16-13	11-8	13%

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Summit League

10 teams

Team	IQ	Proj	Conf	Title
94 St. Thomas-Minnesota	597	18-10	11-5	36%
97 North Dakota State	589	21-6	15-1	33%
193 South Dakota State	479	10-16	6-8	10%
209 Centenary (LA)	457	0-1	0-0	8%

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Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference

13 teams

Team	IQ	Proj	Conf	Title
130 Siena	556	22-12	16-7	22%
149 Merrimack	534	22-10	18-4	17%
157 Marist	522	18-12	13-9	15%
164 Quinnipiac	513	18-13	12-9	14%

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ASUN Conference

12 teams

Team	IQ	Proj	Conf	Title
151 Lipscomb	533	16-12	11-6	24%
156 Queens University	524	20-12	16-5	22%
179 Austin Peay	497	19-9	14-4	16%
188 Central Arkansas	485	18-12	15-4	14%

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Ohio Valley Conference

11 teams

Team	IQ	Proj	Conf	Title
134 Tennessee State	551	17-8	14-4	37%
204 Southeast Missouri State	461	13-13	11-7	14%
210 SIU Edwardsville	456	15-11	11-7	13%
213 UT Martin	455	17-10	12-7	13%

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Patriot League

10 teams

Team	IQ	Proj	Conf	Title
95 Navy	594	24-7	18-2	58%
227 Colgate	438	16-15	12-8	10%
228 American University	437	13-16	9-10	10%
240 Boston University	414	16-17	12-9	8%

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America East Conference

9 teams

Team	IQ	Proj	Conf	Title
111 UMBC	571	22-8	17-2	59%
189 Vermont	482	20-12	14-5	22%
276 UMass Lowell	371	12-18	10-8	6%
302 UAlbany	338	8-21	7-10	4%

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Northeast Conference

10 teams

Team	IQ	Proj	Conf	Title
194 Long Island University	478	25-10	19-3	36%
252 Central Connecticut	401	16-12	12-7	15%
268 Mercyhurst	378	14-17	11-9	12%
282 Wagner	365	11-18	9-12	10%

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Southwestern Athletic Conference

12 teams

Team	IQ	Proj	Conf	Title
260 Bethune-Cookman	388	15-14	13-4	22%
284 Southern	364	13-17	12-8	16%
298 Grambling	342	11-19	7-12	13%
310 Florida A&M	322	12-15	11-7	10%

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Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

8 teams

Team	IQ	Proj	Conf	Title
166 Howard	510	20-11	13-3	72%
280 Norfolk State	365	11-16	8-6	14%
341 North Carolina Central	261	11-19	11-8	4%
347 Morgan State	242	10-17	9-6	3%

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