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Tournament Odds Bracketology →

10,000 bracket simulations · played games locked to their results, everything ahead simulated.

Pre-tourney As played
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Seed Team Region R32 S16 E8 F4 Final Champ
1 Michigan R2 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100.0%
2 UConn R3 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% <0.1%
1 Arizona R1 100% 100% 100% 100% 0% <0.1%
3 Illinois R4 100% 100% 100% 100% 0% <0.1%
1 Florida R4 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% <0.1%
1 Duke R3 100% 100% 100% 0% 0% <0.1%
2 Purdue R1 100% 100% 100% 0% 0% <0.1%
2 Iowa State R2 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% <0.1%
2 Houston R4 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% <0.1%
3 Virginia R2 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% <0.1%
3 Gonzaga R1 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% <0.1%
3 Michigan State R3 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% <0.1%
4 Alabama R2 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% <0.1%
4 Arkansas R1 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% <0.1%
4 Kansas R3 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% <0.1%
4 Nebraska R4 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% <0.1%
5 Wisconsin R1 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% <0.1%
5 St. John's R3 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% <0.1%
5 Texas Tech R2 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% <0.1%
5 Vanderbilt R4 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% <0.1%
6 Louisville R3 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% <0.1%
6 Tennessee R2 100% 100% 100% 0% 0% <0.1%
6 BYU R1 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% <0.1%
6 North Carolina R4 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% <0.1%
7 UCLA R3 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% <0.1%
7 Saint Mary's R4 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% <0.1%
7 Miami R1 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% <0.1%
7 Kentucky R2 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% <0.1%
8 Ohio State R3 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% <0.1%
9 Iowa R4 100% 100% 100% 0% 0% <0.1%
9 Saint Louis R2 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% <0.1%
9 Utah State R1 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% <0.1%
9 TCU R3 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% <0.1%
10 Missouri R1 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% <0.1%
10 Texas A&M R4 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% <0.1%
11* NC State R1 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% <0.1%
11 South Florida R3 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% <0.1%
11 VCU R4 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% <0.1%
11* Texas R1 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% <0.1%
12 McNeese R4 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% <0.1%
12 High Point R1 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% <0.1%
13 Hawai'i R1 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% <0.1%
13 Troy R4 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% <0.1%
13 California Baptist R3 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% <0.1%
14 North Dakota State R3 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% <0.1%
15 Furman R3 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% <0.1%
16 Siena R3 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% <0.1%
16* Howard R2 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% <0.1%
16* Prairie View A&M R4 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% <0.1%
16* Lehigh R4 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% <0.1%
16* UMBC R2 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% <0.1%

* reached the field through the First Four. Probabilities are survival odds per round from neutral-court matchup pricing — the same engine as every prediction on the site. The source feed is missing 17 of this field’s teams (early exits whose games weren’t published); their empty slots count as byes.