Tournament Odds Bracketology →
10,000 bracket simulations with pre-tournament ratings — the odds before the madness, next to what actually happened.
| Seed | Team | Region | R32 | S16 | E8 | F4 | Final | Champ | How it went |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Duke | R3 | 94% | 80% | 63% | 48% | 33% | 22.3% | Elite Eight |
| 1 | Arizona | R1 | 100% | 75% | 56% | 35% | 22% | 12.3% | Elite Eight |
| 1 | Michigan | R2 | 90% | 72% | 50% | 31% | 18% | 9.4% | 🏆 Champion |
| 1 | Florida | R4 | 97% | 73% | 53% | 31% | 16% | 9.0% | Round of 32 |
| 2 | Houston | R4 | 100% | 67% | 40% | 23% | 12% | 6.3% | Round of 32 |
| 3 | Gonzaga | R1 | 100% | 74% | 44% | 23% | 13% | 6.2% | First round |
| 2 | Iowa State | R2 | 100% | 70% | 45% | 24% | 12% | 5.8% | Round of 32 |
| 2 | Purdue | R1 | 100% | 73% | 38% | 19% | 10% | 4.5% | Sweet 16 |
| 3 | Illinois | R4 | 100% | 66% | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3.8% | Elite Eight |
| 2 | UConn | R3 | 84% | 52% | 30% | 12% | 5% | 2.5% | Runner-up |
| 5 | St. John's | R3 | 100% | 69% | 23% | 13% | 6% | 2.2% | Round of 32 |
| 6 | Tennessee | R2 | 100% | 56% | 25% | 11% | 4% | 1.7% | Sweet 16 |
| 3 | Michigan State | R3 | 78% | 45% | 24% | 9% | 4% | 1.6% | Sweet 16 |
| 4 | Alabama | R2 | 100% | 53% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1.5% | Round of 32 |
| 5 | Texas Tech | R2 | 100% | 47% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1.1% | First round |
| 7 | Saint Mary's | R4 | 70% | 27% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1.1% | First round |
| 3 | Virginia | R2 | 100% | 44% | 18% | 7% | 3% | 0.9% | First round |
| 4 | Arkansas | R1 | 80% | 44% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 0.9% | Sweet 16 |
| 5 | Vanderbilt | R4 | 64% | 39% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0.8% | Round of 32 |
| 5 | Wisconsin | R1 | 63% | 36% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0.8% | First round |
| 7 | UCLA | R3 | 100% | 44% | 20% | 5% | 2% | 0.7% | First round |
| 4 | Nebraska | R4 | 74% | 37% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0.6% | Sweet 16 |
| 6 | Louisville | R3 | 53% | 27% | 13% | 4% | 2% | 0.5% | Round of 32 |
| 7 | Kentucky | R2 | 100% | 30% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0.5% | First round |
| 9 | Iowa | R4 | 100% | 27% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0.4% | Sweet 16 |
| 9 | Utah State | R1 | 100% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0.4% | First round |
| 11 | South Florida | R3 | 47% | 22% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0.3% | First round |
| 6 | BYU | R1 | 60% | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0.3% | First round |
| 6 | North Carolina | R4 | 51% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0.3% | First round |
| 9 | Saint Louis | R2 | 100% | 25% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0.2% | First round |
| 4 | Kansas | R3 | 70% | 25% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0.2% | Round of 32 |
| 8 | Ohio State | R3 | 58% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0.2% | First round |
| 11 | VCU | R4 | 49% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0.1% | Round of 32 |
| 7 | Miami | R1 | 54% | 16% | 5% | 1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | Round of 32 |
| 12 | High Point | R1 | 37% | 16% | 4% | 1% | 0.4% | <0.1% | Round of 32 |
| 12 | McNeese | R4 | 36% | 17% | 5% | 1% | 0.3% | <0.1% | First round |
| 10 | Texas A&M | R4 | 30% | 6% | 2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | <0.1% | Round of 32 |
| 9 | TCU | R3 | 42% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0.3% | <0.1% | Round of 32 |
| 10 | Missouri | R1 | 46% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0.2% | <0.1% | First round |
| 11* | NC State | R1 | 20% | 4% | 1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | <0.1% | First round |
| 16* | UMBC | R2 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | <0.1% | First round |
| 11* | Texas | R1 | 20% | 4% | 1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | <0.1% | Sweet 16 |
| 14 | North Dakota State | R3 | 22% | 6% | 2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | <0.1% | First round |
| 13 | Troy | R4 | 26% | 7% | 1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | <0.1% | First round |
| 13 | California Baptist | R3 | 30% | 6% | 1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | <0.1% | First round |
| 16* | Howard | R2 | 3% | 1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | <0.1% | First round |
| 15 | Furman | R3 | 16% | 4% | 1% | 0.1% | 0% | <0.1% | First round |
| 16 | Siena | R3 | 6% | 2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0% | <0.1% | First round |
| 13 | Hawai'i | R1 | 20% | 4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0% | <0.1% | First round |
| 16* | Prairie View A&M | R4 | 1% | 0.1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | <0.1% | First round |
| 16* | Lehigh | R4 | 2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0% | 0% | <0.1% | First round |
* reached the field through the First Four. Probabilities are survival odds per round from neutral-court matchup pricing — the same engine as every prediction on the site. The source feed is missing 17 of this field’s teams (early exits whose games weren’t published); their empty slots count as byes.